The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and Congress have been working hard to prepare their poll strategies for the 2024 Lok Sabha Elections. While the BJP has set an ambitious target of winning 400 seats in the next election, the Congress and INDIA bloc are working to finalize a seat-sharing deal to defy the Modi might. Now, an opinion poll by C-Voter has given some crucial insights into the possible seat projections for both the parties in South India and the northern states.
The survey gave an upper hand to the BJP in the north but favoured the Congress-led bloc in the South. In Madhya Pradesh (29 seats), the BJP is likely to win 27-29 seats and Congress 0-2 while in Rajasthan (25 seats), the BJP may get 23-25 seats and Congress 0-2 seats. Of the 11 Lok Sabha seats in Chhattisgarh, the BJP may win 9-11 and the Congress 0-2.
In Karnataka where the BJP lost the assembly election earlier this year, the party is likely to win 22-24 seats while Congress has 4-6 seats of the total 28 seats. In Telangana, the second southern state in full control of the Congress party, the BJP may get only 1-3 seats while the Congress may get 9-11 seats and the BRS 3-5 seats of the total 17 seats.
These states have a total of 110 seats and the BJP is likely to win around 83-85 seats.
On the other hand, there are 223 Lok Sabha seats in five key states – Punjab, Maharashtra, West Bengal, Bihar and Uttar Pradesh. Of these, the BJP+ is likely to win 125-130 seats. These states play a pivotal role in sending any party to power. Of the 80 seats of Uttar Pradesh, the NDA-led by BJP is likely to win 73-75 seats, while Congress + SP 4-6 seats and BSP 0-2 seats.
In Punjab, despite the state having an Aam Aadmi Party government, the Congress has emerged favourites in the survey. According to it, of the 13 Lok Sabha seats, Congress may win 5-7, AAP 4-6, BJP 0-2 seats and Shiromani Akali Dal 0-2 seats.
Of the 48 Lok Sabha seats in Maharashtra, Congress+ (Shiv Sena-UBT, NCP-Sharad Pawar and Congress) may get 26-28 seats while the BJP+ (BJP, Shiv Sena-Shinde and NCP-Ajit Pawar) may get 19-21 seats and others 0-2 seats.
Of the 42 Lok Sabha seats in West Bengal where the BJP will face the might of Trinamool Congress, the saffron party is likely to win 16-18 seats while the ruling TMC may bag 23-25 seats and Congress+ (Congress, CPM) 0-2 seats.
In Bihar where 40 Lok Sabha seats will go to the polls, Congress+ (Congress, JDU and RJD) may win 21-23 seats, BJP+ (BJP, LJP-Ram Vilas, LJP-Pashupati Kumar Paras, HAM) 16-18 seats and others 0-2 seats.
In total, these 10 states have 333 seats of which the NDA is likely to win around 210 seats. If this survey is to be believed, the BJP will face an uphill task of winning 90 seats of the remaining 212 seats which includes 39 in Tamil Nadu, 25 in Andhra Pradesh, 20 In Kerala, 21 in Odisha, 14 in Assam and 26 in Gujarat. While the BJP might sweep Gujarat and Assam, it faces the mammoth task of breaching the Andhra Pradesh, Kerala and Dravidian fort Tamil Nadu.
The BJP, which is planning to register a victory greater than 2019 by winning around 400 seats or at least more than 350 seats, may see its ‘2024 record’ dream being spoiled by states like Bihar, Maharashtra, Odisha, and Southern belt. If these surveys are to be believed, the NDA may secure a majority securing a historic third term for Prime Minister Narendra Modi but only with many seats that it bagged in the 2019 polls.