With Bihar’s Assembly elections approaching, the focus is on seat-sharing arrangements among political parties. The NDA, currently in power, is negotiating seat allocations, with the LJP(RV) led by Chirag Paswan, being a key player. It is expected that the JD(U) and BJP, major components of the NDA, will contest on around 100 and 105 seats, respectively.
In the 2020 elections, JD(U) contested 115 seats and won 43, while BJP contested 110 seats, securing 74 victories. Despite the disparity in strike rates, Nitish Kumar remained the alliance leader. The current discussions revolve around Chirag Paswan’s party’s strike rate, as their seat demands raise questions. This analysis examines the LJP’s electoral journey in Bihar.
Chirag Paswan’s party is expected to be part of the NDA this time, after contesting independently in the last assembly election. Reports indicate that Chirag is seeking 40 seats, which is seen as unlikely. Sources suggest a potential allocation of 20 seats, as both BJP and JD(U) are looking to accommodate other allies such as Hindustani Awam Morcha (Secular) and Rashtriya Lok Morcha.
Ram Vilas Paswan established the LJP in 2000, and it first participated in the February 2005 Assembly elections. The party focused on the Extremely Backward Class (EBC) voters. The LJP partnered with the Congress to oppose Lalu Prasad Yadav’s RJD, fielding 178 candidates and winning 29 seats, earning 12.62% of the vote share. Despite a strong initial performance, no coalition achieved a majority. Consequently, President’s rule was imposed and the Assembly was dissolved.
Fresh elections were held in October 2005. The LJP contested 203 seats, but secured only 10 wins. The party’s vote share dropped to 11.10%. In 2010, the LJP allied with RJD, contesting 75 seats but only winning 3, with the vote share decreasing to 6.74%.
In 2015, the LJP contested 42 seats as part of the NDA. The party’s performance continued to decline, winning just 2 seats. The vote share further decreased to 4.83%. Following a party split, Chirag Paswan formed LJP(RV) and contested the 2020 elections independently, departing from the NDA. The party fielded candidates in 135 seats but won a single seat, although their vote share increased to 5.66%.
During the 2020 elections, Chirag’s departure from the NDA affected the JD(U). Political analysts believe that Chirag’s decision to field candidates against the JD(U) caused significant damage. In 64 seats, LJP candidates received more votes than the victory margins of the winning candidates. Now, the LJP points to the 6% vote share it obtained in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, arguing that it demonstrates growing support, thus the demand for 40 seats.