The government’s Economic Survey 2026 offers nuanced insights: FY27 retail inflation will climb slightly from FY26 but remain contained. FY26’s pronounced cooldown keeps it within RBI’s 2-6% band around 4%. Late 2025 RBI call: 2%; IMF: 2.8%, propelled by food price relief.
Primary FY27 concern: Metals volatility. Copper, aluminum, iron prices surge on infrastructure frenzy, clean energy investments, data center growth versus supply constraints, hiking manufacturer and builder expenses.
Food deflation dominated FY26 via superior monsoons, reservoirs, crops. Survey predicts stabilization, not further falls, lifting CPI as base effects dissipate— a mechanical boost to headline numbers.
Gold/silver spikes and rupee slide amplify import costs. Buffer policies endure, yet food inflation edges higher. Emphasizing these intertwined factors, the survey calls for strategic oversight to maintain price anchors while fueling India’s development trajectory.