Thursday marks a grim milestone: New START, the cornerstone of US-Russia nuclear restraint, is dead. Without this treaty, the superpowers’ strategic arsenals face no caps, portending a high-stakes revival of arms competition in a fractured world.
Born from 2010 summits, New START bound each to 1,550 ready warheads atop 700 missiles or bombers. Inspections – over 300 conducted – demystified capabilities, averting arms race triggers rooted in opacity.
The 2021 extension faltered against Ukraine’s shadow. Putin’s 2023 suspension blocked US visits, framed as retaliation for NATO involvement. Russia stuck to quotas initially, even proposing a 2026 hold in late 2025, but reciprocity failed.
Liberty brings peril. The US eyes tripling warhead production; Russia deploys novel vectors like Burevestnik cruise missiles. Frenzied innovation could spiral costs and risks, drawing in rivals like China and North Korea.
Stakeholders from Geneva to Geneva warn of domino effects: eroded deterrence, proliferated tech, normalized nuclear posturing. As flashpoints simmer, New START’s void amplifies doomsday odds. Reviving mutual limits demands bold leadership – will Moscow and Washington seize the moment, or double down on division?