Expect fireworks in India’s economic stats: Q3 FY26 GDP growth is pegged at 8.3 percent, propelled by GST rate slashes that supercharged demand, per Union Bank of India. High base from last year provides some offset, but the momentum is undeniable.
The report predicts GVA at 8 percent for Q3, ahead of 6.5 percent YoY but shy of Q2’s 8.1 percent. It asserts, ‘GDP print for Q3, out February 27, likely 8.3 percent versus 6.4 percent last year.’
Nominal growth faces headwinds, forecasted at 8.5 percent against Q2’s 8.7 percent and 10.3 percent prior year, thanks to inflation retreat and deflator decline. Old base year underpins these figures, with MoSPI’s changes still unfolding.
FY26 projections endure strongly, FY27 hints positively, pending base year recalibrations. New 2022-23 base year data drop Friday incorporates enhanced inputs for corporates and MSMEs, addressing chronic data voids.
As India navigates base revisions and tax reforms, the economy’s fundamentals shine. GST’s demand stimulus, paired with statistical upgrades, reinforces a narrative of vigorous, inclusive growth ahead.