Economists are upbeat about India’s economic prospects, forecasting accelerated growth in FY26’s fourth quarter based on robust high-frequency indicators. The new GDP series supports a bumped-up FY26 estimate of 7.6 percent from 7.4 percent.
Bank of Baroda’s Jahnavi Prabhakar downplayed series-related fiscal concerns: ‘No major or lasting impact on the deficit ratio.’ Her FY27 projection of 7-7.5 percent growth remains unchanged, matching the FY26 target.
Double-digit manufacturing growth at 11.5 percent (up from 9.3 percent), after three years of expansion, anchors this outlook. Expect 10.1 percent from trade-hospitality-tourism, versus 6.6 percent previously.
Exports rise to 9.6 percent nominally, with PFCE at a solid 8.9 percent. GST rationalization has supercharged consumption, urban demand in particular, fueling broader recovery.
U.S. tariff changes spark some worry, but new bilateral trade agreements may cushion blows.
Q3 FY26 GVA hit 7.8 percent growth per new data, topping FY25’s 7.4 percent, driven by services (11 percent in trade/hotels from 6.7 percent) and manufacturing. Rebasing holds fiscal ratios steady.
With sectoral synergies aligning, India is on track for dynamic FY26 growth, Q4 set to shine brightest.