A top Qatar official has sounded the alarm on the Middle East powder keg, predicting crude oil could hit $150 per barrel if conflict drags on, forcing widespread export shutdowns. Minister Saad al-Kaabi told the Financial Times that Gulf producers may declare force majeure imminently, as Iran’s drone and missile onslaughts threaten vital shipping lanes.
Without safe transit, natural gas prices face a 4x jump to $40/MMBtu. Al-Kaabi was blunt: undeclared exporters risk crippling lawsuits. Qatar acted first, invoking force majeure post-attack on Ras Laffan, its premier LNG site and global #2 producer. Assessments ongoing, but only a fraction of carriers—6-7 from 128—are loading-ready. Full reboot? Weeks to months amid persistent disruptions.
Markets are in freefall upward: Brent crude’s 20% weekly rally ended Friday above $89 (up 3%), WTI blazed 25% to $86, matching April 2024 highs. At least 10 ships struck, insurance premiums exploding—shipping firms are ghosting the Gulf.
From Bahrain refinery blasts to broader Iranian strikes, the fuse burns short. Al-Kaabi’s prognosis spotlights energy’s geopolitical tightrope: one misstep, and global pumps, power plants, and pockets suffer. Stakeholders from OPEC to Wall Street must pivot fast to mitigate an impending storm.