Bilateral trade between America and China has dwindled to just 2 percent of global trade, sliding from 2.7 percent in 2024, as detailed in the freshly released DHL Global Connectedness Report on Thursday.
Collaborating with New York University Stern, DHL’s analysis reveals decoupling persists between the duo despite resilient worldwide globalization, battered by tariffs and tensions.
From a 2015 peak of 3.6 percent, the share has nosedived steadily—2.7 percent in 2024, nearly 2 percent in 2025’s initial quarters. Their mutual investments scrape under 1 percent of world flows.
Global ties score 25 percent in 2025, matching 2022 highs on the 0-100 connectedness gauge for trade, capital, information, and human movement.
‘These trends affirm capacity for international engagement in tough times,’ remarked DHL Express leader John Pearson, urging global teamwork against poverty and environmental threats.
Stripping out pandemic volatility, 2025’s trade boom exceeded 2017-2024 levels, propelled by US import rushes before tariffs and AI tech hunger. Per WTO, AI products fueled 42 percent of early-2025 merchandise growth.
Expectations: Moderate 2.6 percent annual goods trade growth through 2029, in line with decade-long norms. US-China strains underscore a pivot, not globalization’s collapse.