Tensions boil over in trade relations as US-China exchanges dwindle to 2% of global trade—from 2.7% in 2024—per the freshly published DHL Global Connectedness Report 2026. Despite this bilateral chill, globalization sails on steadily, the Thursday release affirms.
In tandem with New York University’s Stern School, DHL reveals that surging tariffs, political frictions, and erratic policies haven’t fractured international bonds. Trade between the titans topped out at 3.6% of global in 2015, sliding progressively to 2.7% last year and nearly 2% in 2025’s opening quarters.
Cross-border investments between them scrape under 1% of world totals. Optimism prevails globally, though: the connectedness barometer hit 25% in 2025, on par with 2022 highs across trade, capital, knowledge, and personnel flows.
‘Resilience defines our era—nations and businesses forge ahead internationally,’ DHL Express leader John Pearson observed. He advocated global solidarity against poverty and environmental threats. Beyond COVID quirks, 2025 marked peak trade acceleration since 2017, thanks to US tariff-evasion shipments and AI tech booms.
The World Trade Organization credits AI products with 42% of early 2025 goods trade gains. Forecasts see merchandise trade advancing at 2.6% annually to 2029, echoing prior decade averages. The narrative is clear: US-China decoupling notwithstanding, global trade’s momentum persists, beckoning cooperative strategies forward.