Budget day drama captivates Dalal Street, but the real story unfolds afterward. Investors pondering post-budget plays will find gold in this 15-year trend analysis of India’s top indices.
SBI Securities data spotlights short-term strength: Sensex up 11/15 weeks post-budget (2.10% avg), down four (2.05%). Nifty: 12/15 ups (2.04%), three downs (2.65%).
Medium-term? Sensex: 9/15 gains (6.77%), 6 losses (5.28%). Nifty parallels: 9 ups (7.40%), 6 downs (5.46%).
Venture into mid/smallcaps for thrill. Week 1: Both indices positive 11 times—Midcap 3.1%, Smallcap 3.3%; negatives ~3%.
Three months: Midcap 10/15 positives (8.67% vs. 7.77% losses); Smallcap 7 gains (14.54%) vs. 8 losses (8.77%).
Why the tilt? Budgets clarify fiscal paths, spurring capex and consumption themes. Largecaps anchor, others amplify.
Strategic takeaway: Lean bullish short-term, stay diversified long-term. History favors recovery, but agility trumps all in volatile times.