While US-China trade has dwindled to only 2% of the world’s total—from 2.7% in 2024—globalization shows no signs of faltering, according to Thursday’s DHL Global Connectedness Report 2026. This NYU Stern collaboration highlights persistent decoupling amid broader economic vitality.
The duo’s trade peaked at 3.6% globally in 2015, sliding relentlessly to 2% by Q3 2025, exacerbated by tariffs and tensions. Cross-border investments fare worse, at under 1% of worldwide activity.
Global connectedness, however, stabilized at 25% in 2025—equaling 2022 highs—measuring flows of goods, money, info, and people.
DHL CEO John Pearson noted, ‘These insights affirm that global relationships endure volatility.’ He urged unity against poverty and climate perils.
Stripping out pandemic effects, 2025 trade growth outpaced any year since 2017, boosted by US tariff-evasion shipments and AI fervor. AI goods powered 42% of WTO-tracked merchandise upticks in early 2025.
Forecasts predict 2.6% yearly trade expansion to 2029, in line with historical averages. The US-China chill hasn’t thawed global trade’s momentum.