A vital IMF infusion has granted Pakistan’s battered economy a reprieve from collapse, though sluggish metrics and internal discord forewarn of mid-term fragility.
September 2024 brought the IMF’s nod to a $7 billion lifeline under the Extended Fund Facility, focused on stability and credibility restoration. $3.3 billion disbursed; $3.7 billion pending in phased payouts to 2027, hinged on compliance.
Built for accountability, it reassures Gulf lenders too. Counterpart: embrace of strict fiscal and monetary orthodoxy. Consequence—an economy in low gear.
GDP inched 2.4% higher in 2024, eyed at 3.5% for 2025. Near-2% population rise curbs per-person progress, muting lifestyle lifts.
This shaky stage bedevils reforms. IMF mandates, derided as anti-prosperity, spark growing ire. Power sector tweaks, including rate surges, could inflate prices 1% promptly, sapping program goodwill.
The track record? 24 programs since 1958—the most ever. Adherence in distress, abandon in ease: imbalances recur cyclically.
Successors stabilized acutely yet shunned profound shifts or sustained booms. Exit calls echo faintly in politics, muted by financing pressures and 2029’s far-off vote, preserving policy space.
Through 2027, scrutiny ensures adherence. Post-deadline, historical pulls toward laxity or reform delays intensify, risking repeat if growth falters pre-polls.