Deepening turmoil in Pakistan spells trouble for China’s CPEC, with a fresh report flagging risks to Beijing’s massive outlay. If officials can’t navigate to Islamabad without peril, China may scale back involvement. Fresh hurdles keep emerging, each one battering CPEC progress and Beijing’s regional billions.
ISPI’s Italian analysis reveals China’s bold visions for Afghanistan-Pakistan influence and border economic hubs faltering against current headwinds. October 2025 saw lethal border missile fire between Pakistan and Taliban forces, capping a relational nosedive since Kabul’s 2021 shift.
China’s $62 billion wager from nearly ten years back now breeds apprehension amid Pakistan’s homegrown insurgency surge and prickly neighborhood ties.
The corridor carves a path to the Arabian Sea via infrastructure sprawl, centering on Balochistan’s Gwadar. Yet, strife within Pakistan sabotages returns, freezing key advancements.
Persistent BLA strikes ravage Balochistan projects, stunting Gwadar growth. Security woes peaked with late-2024’s remote Gwadar Airport debut under CPEC funding, dodging elite exposures.
TTP adds fuel, pummeling Khyber Pakhtunkhwa’s forces and Chinese builds. As threats mount, the report urges Beijing to confront whether CPEC’s promise outweighs the perils in an unraveling Pakistan.