A top Qatari official foresees catastrophe if Middle East clashes endure: force majeure across Gulf oil ports, slashing supplies and catapulting crude to $150/barrel within weeks, per Energy Minister Saad al-Kaabi. Natural gas could hit $40/MMBtu in the ensuing scramble.
Financial Times quotes al-Kaabi stressing inevitability: Gulf exporters must halt shipments legally soon or face obligations. Strait chokepoints for tankers spell doom—prices doubling for oil, quadrupling for gas in 2-3 weeks.
Panic shows in benchmarks: Brent up 20% weekly, at $89+ Friday (3% daily pop). WTI’s 25% rally landed it at $86, best since April 2024.
Iran’s drone strike on Qatar’s premier Ras Laffan LNG plant prompted immediate force majeure. World’s #2 LNG maker now assesses fallout, but logistics woes persist. Merely 6-7 of 128 carriers loadable now; full reboot: weeks-to-months.
Shipowners balk at risks—10 vessels targeted, premiums soaring. Iran’s missile/drone campaign, nailing a Bahrain refinery, accelerates the surge. Global ripple effects? Higher fuel costs, industrial strains, and policy pivots loom large.