In a chilling forecast, Qatar Energy Minister Saad al-Kaabi warns that Middle East conflict endurance could unleash force majeure on Gulf oil giants, stalling exports and rocketing crude to $150 per barrel within weeks. Gas prices face a quadrupling to $40 per MMBtu, per his Financial Times remarks.
Al-Kaabi outlined the timeline: ‘Force majeure declarations from holdouts are imminent—days away if war persists. All regional exporters will comply to evade contractual penalties.’
Strait disruptions spell doom for tankers. The result? Rapid price escalation as inventories dwindle.
Benchmark oils reflect the panic. Brent posted a 20% weekly surge, gaining 3% Friday to exceed $89. WTI’s 25% climb landed it at $86, both at multi-month highs.
World No. 2 LNG exporter Qatar has activated force majeure at Ras Laffan following Iran’s drone hit. Damage probes continue, but al-Kaabi stressed prolonged recovery: ‘Weeks to months’ even sans further attacks, with only a sliver of its 128 LNG fleet ready.
Shippers balk at risks after assaults on numerous vessels and premium explosions from insurers. Iran’s missile-drone campaign, targeting Bahrain refineries among others, amplifies supply fears. This precarious standoff demands urgent diplomatic intervention to avert economic fallout.