The Election Commission’s recent data indicates a notable shift in Bihar’s voter landscape. Following the initial phase of the Special Intensive Revision (SIR) of electoral rolls, 7.24 crore forms were collected. This represents a decrease of 65 lakh, or 8%, compared to the registered voters on June 24, before the SIR commenced. Furthermore, this figure is 48 lakh (6.2%) less than the voter count during the last Lok Sabha elections and 12 lakh (1.6%) less than in the 2020 Assembly elections.
The decline in voter numbers marks a significant change in Bihar. It’s the first such instance since the two 2005 Assembly elections, where a decrease has occurred between consecutive polls. The final voter list is set to be published on September 30 by the Election Commission. The downward trend has been consistent across both types of elections, whether consecutive Assembly elections or a combination of Assembly and Lok Sabha polls.
Historically, voter registration figures for state Assembly and Lok Sabha elections have generally shown an increase. An analysis of voter data after the third delimitation in 1977, excluding the Assembly constituencies that became part of Jharkhand in 2000, and after the 2004 Lok Sabha elections (the first after Jharkhand’s formation) shows that voter numbers typically rose between subsequent elections, except for the period between the February and October 2005 Assembly elections. During 2005, the voter count dropped from 5.27 crore to 5.13 crore (2.5%), indicating that a decline in Bihar’s registered voters isn’t unprecedented. However, it would be unusual for the final voter list to have fewer registered voters than in the 2020 Assembly elections (7.36 crore) or the 2024 Lok Sabha elections (7.73 crore).
The reality is that the number of registered voters dropped from 7.89 crore on June 24 to 7.24 crore on July 27, an 8% decline. This decline is proportionally greater than the 2.5% decrease observed between the February and October 2005 elections.
Interestingly, a decline in registered voters in a state with a high fertility rate like Bihar is noteworthy. Between the 2001 and 2011 censuses, Bihar’s adult population increased by 28.5%, even as migration from the state also increased.
There’s still a window for the current decline to be reversed. The Election Commission’s press release on July 27 noted that the inclusion of eligible voters through claims and objections is possible from August 1 to September 1. Young voters turning 18 by or on October 1 can also be added to the voter list during this period.
One potential factor behind the 2005 decline was the Election Commission’s new Electors Photo Identity Card (EPIC) campaign launched between the two Assembly elections that year. The Election Commission stated on July 23, 2005, that permanent online EPIC centers were being established in all election offices, and additional teams were formed to cover more voters in rural areas. The aim was to expand EPIC coverage, minimizing the need for alternative identification documents at polling stations. Between the start of this campaign and the election schedule announcement on September 3, EPIC coverage increased from 57% to 67%.