Defying a choppy global landscape, India’s GDP is forecast to clock over 8 percent growth in FY25-26’s third quarter, according to fresh SBI Research insights. The report spotlights how internal fortitude is steering the nation through external storms.
October-December 2025 data from high-frequency sources shows unwavering economic activity. Countryside consumption surges on agri gains and non-farm hustles, paralleled by urban demand rebounding via fiscal boosts and holiday sales carryover.
Group Chief Economic Adviser Dr. Soumya Kanti Ghosh at SBI noted the dual engines: ‘Agriculture and rural non-agri sectors prop up consumption, with urban areas steadily recovering.’ This propels FY26 to 7.4 percent growth, consumption-led.
A pivotal update looms: base year shift to 2022-23 from 2011-12, plus CPI to 2024, releasing February 27. Tailored to today’s digital services and e-commerce rise, it integrates GST, e-mobility, and gas data for truer informal economy reads, possibly vaulting India to global #4.
Revision scale is tricky to gauge post these tweaks, but FY26’s second estimates, three-year back series, and new quarterly figs arrive imminently. Economic Survey sees 7 percent potential now, 6.8-7.2 percent for FY27.
Globally, 3.3 percent growth beckons amid geo-risks, debt piles, and decarbon-digital overhauls fostering disparity. India’s outlier success narrative celebrates policy savvy, consumption muscle, and adaptive data evolution.