Renowned economist Mahendra Dev reveals India’s ingenious four-pronged defense against mounting tariff barriers, confidently predicting 7.4% economic growth for FY25. This strategic blueprint addresses vulnerabilities while capitalizing on India’s inherent strengths.
Strategy one prioritizes geographical diversification of trade. ‘Concentrated risks must be diluted,’ Dev warned, advocating deeper penetration into Central Asia, Middle East, and South America. Software exports to new markets grew 18% last quarter.
Second, scaling domestic value chains via targeted incentives. From drones to defense equipment, PLI schemes are fostering self-reliance, attracting Tesla and Foxconn investments alike.
Third comes proactive trade diplomacy. ‘FTAs are our tariff passports,’ Dev quipped, noting the EU deal could unlock €100 billion in opportunities. Australia and UK pacts are in advanced stages.
Infrastructure digitalization anchors the fourth prong. UPI’s global expansion, coupled with dedicated freight corridors, is revolutionizing trade efficiency.
Dev’s bullish projection rests on solid indicators: PMI consistently above 58, record GST collections, and capex cycle revival. Services PMI at 60+ signals robust external demand.
External shocks like Red Sea disruptions test resilience, but India’s strategic petroleum reserves and refining capacity mitigate impacts. With elections behind and reforms accelerating, India’s growth story remains compelling for global investors.