Uncertainty around US tariffs on key trading partners, including India, sets the stage for heightened volatility in Indian stock markets next week. Combined with domestic policy decisions and corporate scorecards, these elements will determine if the recent uptick sustains.
RBI’s MPC verdict arrives mid-week, with focus on liquidity measures amid festival season credit demands. Repo rate unchanged seems likely, though CRR cut whispers circulate to ease transmission.
Quarterly results from Kotak Mahindra, Tech Mahindra, and L&T will provide sector health checks. Consumer durables face headwinds from rural slowdown, contrasting with pharma’s steady demand.
US markets’ post-election euphoria fades, with tariff talks gaining traction. Trump’s proposed 60% China levy and 10-20% universal tariffs rattle supply chains. Fed’s Beige Book could reveal economic stress points.
Domestic mutual fund inflows hit record highs, cushioning FPI outflows earlier. GST collections surpassing ₹1.8 lakh crore signal economic vigor. Monsoon revival aids agri plays.
Technical analysis points to Nifty’s ascending channel intact. Fibonacci retracement levels flag 23,800 as strong support. High open interest in 24,000 PEs underscores downside protection.
Rotate into gold, IT services, and private banks for stability. Cyclicals like cement and steel may benefit from infra spend. Stay nimble on tariff developments.
Ultimately, India’s growth story endures, but prudent risk management is paramount next week. Earnings surprises and policy clarity could catalyze fresh highs, while trade frictions pose correction risks.