israel palestine war: There will be only one winner in the war between Israel and the Palestinian terrorist group Hamas. And it is neither Israel nor Hamas. In an operation called Al-Aqsa Storm, Hamas, formally known as the Islamic Resistance Movement, fired thousands of rockets at Israel on October 7, 2023. Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad fighters infiltrated Israel by land, sea and air. Hundreds of Israelis were killed, more than 2,000 were injured and many were taken hostage. In response, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu declared war on Hamas and began airstrikes in Gaza. According to the Palestinian Health Ministry, approximately 400 Palestinians were killed in the first day of the counter-attack. In the coming weeks, Israeli forces will surely retaliate and kill hundreds of Palestinian militants and civilians.
As an analyst of Middle East politics and security, I believe thousands of people on both sides will suffer. But when the smoke settles, the interests of only one country will be served and that country is Iran. Already, some analysts are suggesting that Tehran’s fingerprints can be seen in the surprise attack on Israel. Iran’s leaders have reacted to the attack with encouragement and support. The decisive factor shaping Iran’s foreign policy was the overthrow of the US-friendly, repressive Shah of Iran in 1979 and the transfer of state power to a Shia Muslim revolutionary regime. That regime was defined as a staunch opponent of American imperialism and Israeli Zionism.
Its leaders claimed that the revolution was not just against the corrupt Iranian monarchy; Its purpose was to combat oppression and injustice everywhere, and especially to combat those governments that were supported by the US – chief among them was Israel. For Iran’s leaders, Israel and the US are immoral, unjust and the biggest threats to Muslim society and Iranian security. The enduring hostility felt toward Israel was not diminished by its close ties to the Shah and Israel’s role in the continued oppression of the Iranian people.
Israel’s intelligence service, the Mossad, in conjunction with the US Central Intelligence Agency, helped organize the Shah’s secret police and intelligence service, SAVAK. The organization employed increasingly harsh tactics to suppress dissidents during the Shah’s last two decades in power, including mass imprisonment, torture, disappearances, forced deportations, and the murder of thousands of Iranians.
Israel was shocked by the Hamas operation. Support for Palestinian liberation was a central theme of Iran’s revolutionary message. The Israeli invasion of Lebanon in 1982 – in retaliation for Lebanon-based Palestinian attacks against Israel – provided Iran with an opportunity to live up to its anti-Semitic rhetoric by challenging Israeli troops in Lebanon and curbing American influence in the region.
stir up controversy
To this end, Iran sent its Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps – a branch of Iran’s military, commonly known as the “Revolutionary Guard” – to Lebanon to organize and support Lebanese and Palestinian militants. . In Lebanon’s Bekaa Valley, Revolutionary Guardsmen trained Shia resistance fighters in religion, revolutionary ideology, and guerrilla tactics, and provided weapons, money, training, and encouragement. Iran’s leadership transformed these early trainees from a group of fighters into Hezbollah, Lebanon’s most powerful political and military force today and Iran’s greatest foreign policy success.
Since the early 1980s, Iran has maintained support for anti-Israel terrorist groups and campaigns. The Islamic Republic has publicly pledged millions of dollars in annual aid to the groups and provides advanced military training to thousands of Palestinian fighters at Revolutionary Guard and Hezbollah bases in Iran and Lebanon. Iran runs a sophisticated smuggling network to deliver weapons to Gaza, which has long been cut off from the outside world due to the Israeli blockade.
Through the Revolutionary Guard and Hezbollah, Iran has encouraged and enabled Palestinian Islamic Jihad and Hamas violence, and these Palestinian fighters now represent a significant element of what foreign affairs analysts call Iran’s “deterrence” against Israel and the United States. called “axis”. But Iran cannot take the risk of direct conflict with any country. As desperation grows, Iranian arms, funding, and training enable an increase in Palestinian terrorist violence against Israel, including the Palestinian uprisings known as the First and Second Intifadas.
Since 2020, the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and the death toll have increased continuously. Palestinians are angry at the evictions and destruction of property, and are also angry that Israel is allowing Israeli nationalists and settlers to prevent Jews from praying at the Al-Aqsa Mosque, which is sacred to Muslims and Jews alike. Allows violations of long-standing agreements. In fact, recent incursions by settlers into Al-Aqsa were specifically cited by Hamas as a major reason for the October 7 attack.
attack on generalization
This does not mean that Iran ordered the Hamas attack on Israel, nor that Iran controls Palestinian terrorists – they are not Iranian puppets. Nevertheless, Iran’s leaders welcomed the attacks, the timing of which coincidentally works in Iran’s favor and plays into the Islamic republic’s regional battle for influence. According to Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Nasser Kanani, “What happened today is in line with the continuation of the victory of anti-Semitic resistance in various regions, including Syria, Lebanon and the occupied lands.” A week before the Hamas attack, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman denied reports that Saudi Arabia was halting its recent efforts to normalize relations with Israel, including a formal declaration of Israel’s right to exist. and increased diplomatic involvement. “Every day we are getting closer,” he said, an assessment that Netanyahu praised and reiterated.
Israeli-Saudi normalization would represent the pinnacle of achievement so far in US diplomatic efforts, which also include the Abraham Accords signed by Israel, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, and Morocco in 2020. The purpose of the agreement is to normalize and maintain peaceful relations between Israel and the Arab countries of the Middle East and Africa. Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei criticized Arab countries for signing the Abraham Accords and accused them of “treason against the global Islamic community”. Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah praised Saturday’s violence against Israel and echoed Khamenei’s sentiments, warning that the attacks sent a message, “especially to those seeking normalization with this enemy.
Israel’s expected harsh response is likely to complicate Saudi Arabia’s normalization with Israel in the near future, thereby furthering Iran’s objectives. Netanyahu said Israel’s counter-operation seeks three objectives: eliminating the threat of infiltrators and restoring peace to Israeli communities facing attack, as well as “extorting a heavy price from the enemy” in Gaza, and “other Strengthening the fronts so that no one gets involved in this war even by mistake. This ultimate objective is a subtle but clear warning to Hezbollah and Iran to stay away from the fight.
Israeli troops have already mobilized to secure their borders and air strikes have been conducted on Gaza. There is every possibility that the Palestinian attackers will be killed or arrested within a few days. The Israeli army and air force will target homes of members of Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad, as well as known or suspected rocket launch, manufacturing, storage and transportation sites. But in the process, hundreds of civilians are also likely to lose their lives. I believe Iran expects and welcomes all this.
how will iran win
There are at least three possible outcomes of war and all of them are in Iran’s favor. First, a harsh Israeli response could alienate Saudi Arabia and other Arab countries from US-backed Israeli normalization efforts. Second, if Israel deems it necessary to advance into Gaza to end the threat, it could trigger another Palestinian uprising in East Jerusalem or the West Bank, leading to a more widespread Israeli response and increased instability.
Ultimately, Israel can achieve its first two objectives with the minimum amount of force necessary, abandoning the usual heavy-handed tactics and reducing the possibility of escalating tensions. But this is not likely. And even if it did, it has ignored the underlying causes that led to this latest outbreak of violence and the enabling role played by Iran in that process. And when the next round of Israeli-Palestinian violence occurs – and it will – I believe Iran’s leaders will again congratulate themselves on a job well done.