Single-digit growth capped a resilient 2025 for smartphone shipments, propped up by economic greenshoots and holiday fervor. Yet Counterpoint Research predicts a seismic shift: a record 12.4% plunge in 2026, courtesy of memory supply woes.
The year’s finale shone bright—Q4 up 3.8%, extending four quarters of uplift and rivaling 2021’s holiday peak. Regional strength prevailed, bar China and Eastern Europe.
Reality bites in 2026. Component cost spikes, memory droughts, and budget OEM pitfalls loom large, with distress possibly extending to 2027’s end when capacity catches up.
Counterpoint’s Yang Wang highlights vulnerability: ‘Low-tier handsets suffer most from LPDDR4 evaporation. OEMs counter with delays, portfolio cuts, downgrades, and hikes—10-20% in January 2026 for select Androids.’
Chipmakers’ bias toward AI DRAM and enterprise NAND starves mobile lines, exacerbating imbalances. Divergent fates await: premium from Apple, Samsung may grow modestly via chain mastery and pricing savvy. Sub-$200 market? Over 20% decline.
This forecast challenges assumptions of endless growth. It spotlights supply chain perils and the premium pivot, urging innovation to navigate the lean years.