India’s trade fortunes with the United States shine brighter than ever, according to SBI Research. The latest US agreement promises a trade surplus exceeding $90 billion yearly, unaffected by parallel Bangladesh negotiations.
This influx means $45 billion extra per annum – 1.1% GDP equivalent – plus $3 billion in reserve bolstering.
Synergizing with European and UK accords, the US deal bestows unparalleled leverage on India, rewarding exporters sans exposing critical areas.
SBI economist Dr. Soumya Kanti Ghosh envisions $97 billion in premier exports to the US soon, surpassing $100 billion total, against over $50 billion in US imports (services excluded).
Benchmarked against FY25’s $40.9 billion and FY26 partial-year $26 billion, future surpluses lock in at $90 billion-plus.
Scrutinizing US-Bangladesh dynamics, textiles dominate with $7.5 billion bilateral imports. Variations abound: Bangladesh non-wovens vs. India’s ready-mades.
Tariffs drop to 19% for Bangladesh, with zero rates for US-fiber apparel. Apprehensions for Indian textiles mount, yet SBI deems impacts minimal due to pricier US inputs for Dhaka.
Displacement of 10% Indian cotton and 2% synthetics to Bangladesh via US channels? A trifling $1 billion hit.
Europe’s unlocked $260 billion zero-tariff textile market amplifies prospects, cementing India’s export dominance in a multipolar trade landscape.