Taiwan faces a gathering storm, as warned by the Global Taiwan Institute, with China’s PLA poised for bolder, larger-scale provocations potentially culminating in 2027. The forecast draws from patterns akin to superpower maneuvers elsewhere, underscoring Beijing’s fixation on reclaiming the self-ruled democracy.
GTI’s John Dotson, in a forward-looking D.C. panel, flagged April and December exercises that swarmed Taiwan’s flanks with PLA jets and Coast Guard ships. ‘Deploying the Coast Guard fulfills China’s storyline of enforcement over aggression,’ he observed, enabling plausible deniability.
Fellow Ann Kovalevski, citing Taipei Times, pegged 2026 as the PLA’s readiness horizon, with explosive growth in capabilities expected soon. She pondered if Taiwan-U.S. countermeasures could sustain deterrence amid Beijing’s rush. The 2027 benchmark revives Admiral Davidson’s alert on Xi’s invasion prep timeline, positioning it as a relational inflection point.
Amid 2025’s ‘Justice Mission’ and blamed provocations like Lai’s speeches or arms packages, GTI insists on prior planning. Taiwan countered with revelations of CCP-orchestrated cyber ops, 19,000+ contentious dispatches, and hacking barrages this month—hybrid warfare to undermine morale.
National Security Bureau briefings to parliament exposed 799 suspect accounts stoking fears over U.S. reliability, presidential efficacy, and fortitude. This multi-domain campaign signals China’s attrition strategy. As deadlines approach, diplomatic and military resolve will define whether tension simmers or erupts, with ripples for worldwide order.