China’s population paradox unfolds: lavish incentives fail to halt decline. Official figures show 7.92 million births in 2024—a 17% drop from prior year and post-1949 nadir—amid 11.3 million deaths, slashing total populace by 3.39 million to 1.409 billion.
Post-one-child era distortions haunt: shrinking fertile cohorts, surging seniors. Beijing counters with potent tools—10,800 yuan childcare subsidies, beefed-up birth insurance, marriage facilitation, divorce clamps. Marriages hit rock-bottom 6.106 million in 2024 but surged 8.5% into 2025, with Shanghai’s 38.7% leap stealing the show.
Forecasts predict 6.9 million unions this year, births grazing 8 million in 2026. Yet, demographers flag persistent headwinds: eroding birth desire, delayed parenting, fewer women in prime years.
Societal malaise fuels it: exorbitant homes, economic precarity, 996 workweeks, gender imbalances. Youth shun parenthood, fueling ‘bachelor villages’ and singlehood trends.
Implications dwarf policy tweaks. Economy faces labor voids, pension implosions, muted demand—thwarting consumption-led revival. True turnaround demands revolution: housing relief, work reforms, equality drives, childcare revolutions. Until then, China’s aging freight train barrels toward uncertain horizons, testing leadership’s resolve.