The prospect of a meeting between Russian President Vladimir Putin and former U.S. President Donald Trump has caused considerable anxiety in Europe. Several European nations are worried that Trump will concede to Putin’s demands, potentially forcing Ukrainian President Zelensky to accept unfavorable terms. This perceived scenario could lead to a Russian victory and, consequently, trigger further military actions across Europe. Thus, there are claims that European countries are actively working to derail any potential ceasefire negotiations.
The impending Putin-Trump meeting, potentially occurring on August 15th, is considered a pivotal moment. It is viewed as Trump’s last chance to broker a deal that would halt the war in Ukraine. Trump believes that this meeting will result in a ceasefire, which has triggered alarm in Europe. In response, European countries, in conjunction with Ukrainian and U.S. officials, are arranging a series of meetings prior to the Putin-Trump discussion.
A meeting is scheduled to take place in the UK, with representatives from various countries in attendance. The main focus will be to deliberate over the terms of a ceasefire. European countries are apprehensive that Trump may bypass them and reach a peace agreement directly with Putin. This agreement could put pressure on Zelensky to sign a ceasefire, thus excluding the European nations.
To counter this, European countries are endeavoring to exert pressure on Trump. They are reportedly holding private discussions with Zelensky, encouraging him to reject any peace terms proposed by Trump and Putin. Furthermore, they are assuring continued arms shipments to Ukraine, regardless of any shifts in U.S. policy.
Reports suggest that key nations like the UK, Germany, and France are against a ceasefire, preferring instead to see the war continue until Russia is completely defeated, irrespective of the cost. Their reasoning lies in the potential threat posed by Russia to Europe, particularly if the conflict concludes. This could allow Putin to launch operations against Europe, with the Suwalki Gap potentially being the initial target.
NATO is deeply concerned about the potential seizure of the Suwalki Gap by Putin. If a ceasefire is achieved, Putin is believed to be ready to exploit this 65-kilometer corridor linking Kaliningrad to Belarus. This is further intensified by the deployment of Russia’s 71st Division in Belarus, a highly capable force formed in 2024. The division’s presence near the Suwalki Gap increases the perceived threat.
The 71st Division is a reorganized entity of the 200th Motor Rifle Division, which played a significant role in the 2014 annexation of Crimea and the 2022 Kharkiv offensive. Russia has allegedly tasked this division with the control of the Suwalki Gap. In tandem, Russia appears to be preparing for potential actions against Lithuania, adding more tension in the region.
The increasing presence of Russian activity in the region, including the deployment of underwater drones, is adding to the apprehension. The statements made by Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko, who is perceived as a close ally of Putin, have also increased the tensions. Lukashenko’s words have been interpreted as threats aimed at European countries.
Lukashenko’s pronouncements on the conflict, particularly his statement regarding the preparations for war in Belarus, and his stance on Zelensky, have sent a clear warning not only to Ukraine but also to Europe. His remarks have created an environment of caution throughout the region.
Lukashenko indicated that if Russia loses, the consequences will be severe. Consequently, European countries are trying to prolong the war by preventing a ceasefire. They are providing Zelensky with ongoing military support.
There are reports about Putin planning to conduct missile tests, and the European Union has also pledged considerable financial aid to Ukraine to continue with its war effort. Putin has also held a meeting with his Security Council to discuss the ongoing situation with Ukraine and Europe. Russia is expected to demonstrate its military might to Europe by testing the Burevestnik missile. Warships have been deployed to ensure the safety of the testing grounds.
Furthermore, Russia has started building its first nuclear power plant in Kazakhstan. These developments are considered by some analysts as a sign of Russia preparing for further operations in Europe, which could be initiated after achieving objectives in Ukraine.