Amid escalating U.S.-Venezuela tensions, the global oil market teeters, and India’s import strategy faces scrutiny. Ex-Foreign Secretary Harsh Vardhan Shringla broke down the scenario, detailing New Delhi’s exposure and recovery prospects.
With $6 billion invested, India relied on Venezuelan crude via ONGC-led projects like 40%-owned San Cristobal and 11% in Carabobo 1. Sanctions crippled flows, but Shringla remains pragmatic: ‘Venezuela’s reserves dwarf Saudi Arabia’s; we need to strategize reconnection.’
He outlined priorities: safeguard investments, explore alternatives, and await favorable winds. Jefferies analysts forecast $500 million dividend windfall for ONGC if transitions in Venezuela proceed, covering San Cristobal payouts through 2014 before halts.
Trump’s commitment to prolonged bans tempers hopes, yet easing controls could surge supply, bear down on prices, and revive Indian imports. The broader lesson? India’s oil diversification push gains urgency. Shringla’s expertise charts a course: endure sanctions, position assets, and pounce on openings in this volatile energy landscape.