Pakistan’s economy teeters on the edge of ‘managed decline’ by 2031, a new report warns, urging instant, far-reaching changes to tax expansion, energy fixes, and elite-driven governance flaws, as covered by Business Recorder.
Expect 2-3% average GDP growth in five years under patchy reforms—stagnation trailing population boom. Youth abundance could explode into chaos without jobs.
Pivotal next half-decade decides demographic fate: boon or bomb. Job scarcity accelerates talent flight; foreign cash helps short-term, drains capacity long-term. IMF packages patch holes, not build futures—formal sector growth demands action.
Viable path: tax upgrades, revenue digitization, export thrust for 4-5% growth by 2029-30, modest poverty drop. Decadal lapses in taxation and elite control render shocks—energy costs, disasters, tensions—catastrophic, begging bailouts.
Education neglects: 1.9% GDP versus 4-6% global, 26.2 million out-of-school, skill-poor programs unfit for modern demands.
Findings stark: 64% grads unready, 31% youth jobless. 2026-2031 turns on borrowings, costs, deprivation. Comprehensive push alone averts growth-inflation squeeze on lives.