New York (United Nations). The United Nations has projected India’s population to peak at around 1.7 billion in the early 2060s, followed by a 12 percent decline. But India will remain the world’s most populous country throughout the century.
The World Population Prospects 2024 report released on Thursday said the world’s population is expected to continue growing over the next 50-60 years, reaching a peak of about 10.3 billion people in the mid-2080s, up from 8.2 billion in 2024. After hitting the peak, the global population is projected to begin a gradual decline, falling to 10.2 billion people by the end of the century. India, which overtook China as the world’s most populous country last year, will hold that spot until 2100.
The UN report published by the Population Division, Department of Economic and Social Affairs (DESA), UN, said, “India’s population, which is expected to remain the largest in the world throughout the century, is expected to decline by 12 per cent after reaching its peak of nearly 1.7 billion in the early 2060s.” According to the report, India’s population is estimated to be 1.45 billion in 2024 and will reach 1.69 billion in 2054. India’s population is then projected to decline to 1.5 billion by the end of the century in 2100, but the country will still remain the most populous nation on Earth.
Responding to a question on population projections for India, Claire Menozzi, Senior Population Affairs Officer, Population Division, UN DESA, said in a press conference that “India is currently the world’s most populous country, and is projected to remain so throughout the century. The population is currently estimated to be 1.45 billion, and should be further increased to 1.69 billion.”
“It’s going to peak in size around 2060 and then start declining a bit. So by the end of the century, India’s population is projected to be around 1.5 billion, but it will still be the world’s largest country.” China’s population, currently at 1.41 billion in 2024, will fall to 1.21 billion in 2054 and further to 633 million by 2100, the report said.
“It is estimated that China, currently the world’s second most populous country, will experience the largest absolute population loss (204 million) between 2024 and 2054,” followed by Japan (21 million) and Russia (10 million). It says that “long-range population projections” for China are more uncertain.
“However, because of its large size and continued low levels of fertility, China is expected to record the largest population decline of any country (786 million people) by the end of the century. By 2100, China is projected to lose more than half of its current population and return to a population size comparable to that recorded in the late 1950s (50 percent probability).”
Responding to a question on the significantly lower population estimates for China, John Wilmoth, Director of the Population Division at the UN DESA, said that “this is actually related to the level of fertility that is currently seen in China. The current number is around one birth per woman in an average lifetime.”
Wilmoth said. “Given that you need 2.1 births to maintain the current population without migration, if fertility levels stay at this low level, even if they go up a little bit, any fertility level below two, or particularly below 1.8 or below 1.5, you are getting to a really low level of fertility and that leads to long-term declines that are quite significant. And that’s true for China. It’s true for some of the other countries in this analysis.”
