Indian agencies are bracing for turmoil in Bangladesh with parliamentary polls and a referendum set for February 12. Spikes in crime and partisan violence have prompted urgent advisories, highlighting the lethal mix of concurrent voting processes.
The violent regime change ousting Sheikh Hasina last year prominently featured ISI-supported Jamaat-e-Islami. Briefings caution that Jamaat’s relentless victory drive could devolve into radical street warfare should they falter.
BNP and Jamaat are locked in a fierce contest. Victory for BNP implies Pakistani orchestration, facilitated by Yunus’s leniency on travel, trade, and arms with Islamabad—moves that thwart India-Bangladesh rapprochement.
Optimism surrounds Tarique Rahman’s return for potential steady ties with India, yet Khaleda Zia’s era of discord advises wariness. BNP may straddle the fence, placating Pakistan simultaneously.
Jamaat’s ascent would render it ISI’s tool, executing behests faithfully, motivating Pakistan’s push. Yunus’s presidential prospects, deliberated in ISI-Jamaat conclaves, hinge on his granted indulgences.
ISI infiltration exploded post-Hasina, propelled by Jamaat. Yunus enabled this by lifting prohibitions and releasing jihadists—tactics to stoke unrest and tilt dynamics toward Jamaat.
Polls indicate BNP’s advantage over Jamaat, presaging election-day mayhem. Tactics to defer voting and perpetuate Yunus’s interim stint are in play. The Election Commission prioritizes seamlessness, directing officials away from referendum ‘yes’ advocacy.
Ratifying the July Charter enforces 84 constitutional shifts, redefining executive authority, judiciary, electoral mechanisms, and identity markers—eschewing ‘Bengali’ for ‘Bangladeshi.’ Confronting violence threats, India maintains ‘very high alert’ along borders, anticipating Northeast and West Bengal breaches targeting minorities. Patrol reinforcements fortify defenses.