World Population Day: Today World Population Day or International Population Day is being celebrated. World Population Day is celebrated every year on 11 July. Talking about India, ‘population’ has been the main issue of political parties. Often various parties use it to shine politics. India is a country with a Hindu majority population. At the same time, the Muslim population is in second place. However, at the time of independence (15 August, 1947), the population of Muslims in the country was only around 3 to 4 crores. At the same time, in the last 70 years, growing rapidly, their population has become 25 to 30 crores at present. In such a situation, it is often said that if the population of Muslims continues to grow like this, then after 100 or 500 years, Hindus will become a minority and Muslims will become a majority here. So on World Population Day, let’s know the opinion of experts in this matter:-
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India has the highest population in the world. Last year, the United Nations (UN) had given data on India’s population that the country’s population will grow for the next three decades and then it will start declining.
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According to the UN, the population of India is 142.57 crores, in which the largest population is of Hindus and then there are Muslims. Muslim women give birth to more children than Hindu women. Therefore, many times such claims have been made that the Muslims of India will overtake Hindus in terms of population. However, according to experts, this is impossible. There is no possibility of this happening even in 100 years or even 1000 years.
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Devendra Kothari, former chairperson of the National Committee formed to review the Family Welfare Program, says that by the next census, the population of Muslims will either decrease or remain stable. On the other hand, a slight increase can be seen in the population of Hindus. He estimates that till 2170, i.e. for 146 years, if only Muslims produce children and Hindus do not produce children at all, then also it is not possible that the population of Muslims will increase. He said that it is not possible that Hindus do not produce children for such a long time, but this is a simple calculation and such claims being made about the population of Muslims have no meaning.
What will be the population of Muslims by the next census? The last census was conducted in 2011 and at that time the population of Hindus was 79.08 percent, Muslims 14.23 percent, Christians 2.30 percent and Sikhs 1.72 percent. Talking in numbers, 13 years ago there were 96.62 crore Hindus, 17.22 crore Muslims, 2.78 crore Christians and 2.08 crore Sikhs. This means there was a difference of 79.40 crore in the population of Hindus and Muslims. Devendra Kothari, citing scientific analysis, said that by the next census the population of Hindus will increase to 80.3 percent, while the Muslim population will either decrease or remain stable.
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What is the possibility of Muslims overtaking Hindus? Former Election Commissioner S. Y. Qureshi has also said in his book ‘The Population Myth: Islam, Family Planning and Politics in India’ that the Muslim population in India can never be more than that of Hindus. This has been explained in the book through the mathematical model of former Vice Chancellor of Delhi University Dinesh Singh and Professor Ajay Kumar. Census is conducted every ten years and according to this, it was to be done in 2021, but due to many reasons it could not be done. These models were presented in 2021 itself and in the same year it was included in S. Y. Qureshi’s book.
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Will there be more Muslims by the end of this century? Former professor of Jawaharlal Nehru University PM Kulkarni, citing the report of the Sachar Committee, said that despite the high fertility rate, the population of Muslims can reach only 18-20 percent by the end of this century. According to new research, Muslim women in India give birth to more children than Hindus. Although their fertility rate has decreased to 2.6 in 2-15, it is still the highest compared to other religions in the country.
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The difference in fertility rates between the two religions has decreased from 1.1 to 0.5
In 1992, a Muslim woman gave birth to an average of 4.4 children, in 2015 this figure has come down to 2.6. Among Hindus, it has come down from 3.3 to 2.1. In 23 years, the difference in fertility rate between the two religions has come down from 1.1 to 0.5. PM Kulkarni said that according to the report of the Sachar Committee, the population of Muslims is not likely to be more than Hindus even in 1000 years or 100 years.
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In 1951, there were 30.36 crore Hindus and 3.58 crore Muslims
According to the polynominal growth model, there were 30.36 crore Hindus in 1951 and it was estimated to be 115.9 crore by 2021. At the same time, the population of Muslims was 3.58 crore in 1951, which was estimated to be 21.3 crore in 2021. In the exponential model, the number of Hindus was estimated to be 120.6 crore and that of Muslims to be 22.6 crore. Qureshi said in the book that both the models do not show that the Muslim population will ever increase or become equal to that of Hindus.
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